Ultimate Conquest - review of rounds I and II. Feather-gamblers (how to bet to win)

Round I without major surprises and emotions - unfortunately. The favorites did not disappoint. The only case where a team with a higher seed after the regular season lost was the match between PLQ, which was 7th, and KAC, which was 10th. However, it could not have been surprising. If you follow the Alliance Conquest games, you have certainly noticed that PLQ is the weakest team of this part of the season and their defeat was obvious. The time - 3:00 p.m. local time in the middle of the week - did not help them either. 

Watching the other matches, you can feel disappointed with the play of FDH or BTa, from which one could have expected more. The hours of the matches were not comfortable for players from either team, but the RRH and NBe teams easily dealt with this pair. 

When it comes to betting on feathers, the easiest bet was on KAC. there was a small handi (only +13k), which did not pose any threat. It is worth remembering that from this season you can bet on many options for the match, not only the one with the handi, which can be difficult to discern, because you never know if the clear favorite, who usually has a +65k handi, will not give up points. That is why it is worth checking the second tab and choosing options for the score of a given team there. Teams such as WxC or BaN will probably make 80k points until the end, so betting on them to reach 80k+ should not be burdened with a high risk for a direct clash between these alliances. 

In II you could rub your hands with glee, because several matches looked very interesting on paper 

WTF(4) vs HOH(5) 

DUM(3) vs NBe(6) 

GCM(12) vs UTB(13) 

LEG(16) vs BTa(9) 

The remaining matches without much history, BaN, WxC, FuK easily won their matches. It is worth stopping here at the WxC vs KAC match. KAC did not show up for the match. None of them entered the field of play giving the match by walkover. There are rumors in the corridors that the cooperation of both teams has ended and KAC players who joined WxC on UAC will no longer take part in WxC matches. How much truth there is in this - I do not know, but the lack of even a single KAC castle at the match may suggest a lot of truth in these rumors. 

FDH defeated the KUM alliance with a slight resistance. The time of the match was certainly more favorable to FDH, which plays its matches at 1:00 GMT. 

The LEG, doomed to be devoured, faced the favored BTa team. The difference between the teams in "personal score" is almost 2M in favor of the Asian BTa team. LEG plays its matches at 19:00 GMT, BT at 13:00 GMT. However, this spectacle took place at 1:00 GMT, which is very likely to be the middle of the night for LEG players, which tipped the scales even more in favor of BTa. However, the match turned out to be surprisingly easy for the Russian team - LEG, which was very well organized and coordinated. Only the first 2 takeovers fell to BTa. LEG carried out very good swaps on all the buildings, and they successfully defended most of the attempts to retake them. Defenses against raids turned out to be key to winning. BTa completely failed, having much stronger accounts, but as it turned out later, Asian teams have problems with organization and team play. It's hard to win with accounts alone at this level of play. 

In my predictions, this match is the first, and so far the only one that I predicted incorrectly. 

DUM vs NBe - I personally sharpened my teeth for this match. DUM has a very strong group of players and I was counting on a great spectacle against NBe, which is well-organized tactically. Up until the 15th minute, the match was equal in points. From the beginning, the NBe team had a slight optical advantage. DUM started the match well, noting all the first takeovers except for the Lannister Outpost.

Unfortunately, to their misfortune, the swaps they carried out left much to be desired and were countered by NBe. With the first takeovers, DUM gained a few thousandths of an advantage at the beginning, which was eliminated by the NBe alliance, making raids and retaking buildings one by one. DUM looked very weak in defense, where they were unable to defend most of NBe's attempts to take over the location. They looked very good in offense - strong rally leaders did their job, but they were completely unable to maintain the buildings. In this aspect, they lost the match, which had been one-sided from the 20th minute. The mines did not change anything, because apart from the aforementioned Lannister Outpost, it was the mines that fell to NBe. 

NBe made a very good impression on me. For me, the absolute dark horse of this season. I can't wait for their match against HOH, which in a very likely scenario will take place in the VI round.

At the very end, theoretically the cherry on the cake, in terms of emotions - the WTF vs HOH match. Two-time winners, who are probably thinking about rebuilding the power of a few months ago, versus the most patiently built team in GoT, which has grown to the rank of the 3rd force in AC. The match in terms of quantity and activity was almost equal... and that's the end of equal comparisons. WTF turned out to be definitely weaker. They looked like there were a few individuals without much coordination. Raids that were more for individual eliminations than for taking over, weak building defenses and probably not a single successful organized, timed action in raids to take over locations. WTF disappointed all along the line. This does not bode well for them, and GCM, which they will have to face on Wednesday, is not in a lost position at all with such a game from WTF. HOH controlled the match from start to finish, not allowing much. With their performance, they confirmed their aspirations for the TOP 3 at the end of the season. 

The gamblers had an easy task in this round. They earned more than 80k points for BaN, WxC and FuK. 

So what to bet in the third round? In my opinion, a safe bet is +80k points for FuK against KAC.

In the remaining matches, I'm counting on emotions, so I wouldn't bet anything there. I hope we'll get lucky and more feathers will fall into our pockets.

-Winged Husar-

GoTWiC Chronicler