[Review] Analysis of the Wish Grail Event in Infinity Kingdom

💠Introduction

What’s up, folks? After the last two patches, the Dazzling Wish in monthly events have been stripped out to be its own event, happening concurrently with the monthly event. It’s a better option for players who want to spend their Tokens of Light but would prefer the Eternal Grails over Athena’s Summer Passion Outfit. Let’s take a closer look at the Wish Grail event, its odds, and determine the cost and value and opine whether it’s worth the cost.

💠Table of Contents

• Overview
• Probability in Theory
• Probability in Practice
• Cost and Value
• Summary

💠Overview

The Wish Grail is a new 10-day event running from August 10 to August 19 that gives players a better way to spend Tokens of Light than the recently changed Dazzling Wish. With Dazzling Wish now requiring 700 tickets for pity and rewarding Athena’s outfit, which many low- and mid-spenders may not want, Wish Grail shifts the focus back toward Eternal Grails. The event works similarly to Theia’s Roulette, with every roulette slot awarding varying amounts of Eternal Grails and additional milestone rewards unlocked after spending certain numbers of tickets.

💠Probability in Theory

For the entirety of the Wish Grail event, players can spin up to 1,500 times to claim all threshold rewards, which provide a guaranteed 1,400 Eternal Grails. The roulette itself has 12 slots: eight 1-Grail slots with a combined 86% probability, 5 Grails at 8.5%, 25 Grails at 3.5%, 50 Grails at 1.55%, and the jackpot of 300 Eternal Grails at just 0.45%. Based on these probabilities, each spin has an expected value of about 4.285 Eternal Grails, meaning 1,500 spins should average approximately 6,428 Eternal Grails from the roulette alone. Adding the 1,400 Grails from threshold rewards brings the expected total to roughly 7,828 Eternal Grails for 1,500 Tokens of Light, or about 5.22 Eternal Grails per Token of Light.

💠Probability in Practice

In practice, the Wish Grail performed significantly better than its expected value. Across roughly 1,570 Token of Light pulls, I received 8,940 Eternal Grails from the roulette itself, plus the guaranteed 1,400 Grails from threshold rewards, for a total of 10,340 Eternal Grails. Based on the listed probabilities, 1,570 pulls should average only about 6,727 Grails from spins, or roughly 8,127 total after including the threshold rewards. That means my results were approximately 2,213 Grails, or 27%, above the expected total, with the roulette itself performing about 33% better than expected. While luck obviously played a significant role, getting more than 10,000 Eternal Grails from roughly 1,570 Tokens demonstrates just how valuable Wish Grail can be when the higher-value slots hit more frequently than their stated averages.

💠Cost and Value

Tokens of Light cost roughly less than $1 each through the cheapest packs, with players able to purchase several bundles in-game, obtain additional Tokens through the GTArcade Shop, and claim five free Tokens per day from the Challenge Shop for 2,000 Harvest Coins. This makes the Wish Grail particularly attractive compared with Dazzling Wish: Dazzling Wish has an 86.5% chance of awarding just 1 Eternal Grail, 10% for 5 Grails, 1% for 10, 0.7% for 25, 0.4% for 50, and only 0.2% for 100 Grails. Those rates give Dazzling Wish an expected value of only about 2.04 Eternal Grails per Token, compared with approximately 4.29 Grails per Token from Wish Grail's roulette alone, before even accounting for Wish Grail's threshold rewards. For players primarily interested in converting their Tokens of Light into Eternal Grails, Wish Grail therefore offers roughly twice the expected roulette value, making it a much more efficient use of expensive Tokens than the current Dazzling Wish.

💠Summary

Wish Grail offers significantly better Eternal Grail value than the current Dazzling Wish, averaging about 5.22 Grails per Token with milestone rewards. In practice, 1,570 pulls produced 10,340 Grails, about 27% above expectations. For players spending Tokens primarily for Eternal Grails, Wish Grail is clearly the better event.

How do you feel about the new Wish Grail? Let me know in the comments below!

💠References

Version 2.9.8

Infinity Kingdom Official Website

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iOS

Android

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